Two Birds with One Stone: Countermeasure strategies to prevent an avian influenza pandemic
Airfinity hosted a timely webinar on the ongoing avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak, focusing on the heightened risk of the virus becoming the next global pandemic. The expert discussion delved deep into the latest developments in H5N1 and how it could potentially combine with seasonal flu to form a more dangerous pathogen.
Our expert panel included, Dr. Hanna Nohynek, Chief Physician at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Dr. Angie Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, Dr. Florian Krammer, Professor at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and Dr. Bob Kadlec, former Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response at the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS).
Reaching a consensus on what constitutes a "tipping point" in a disease outbreak, such as the current bird flu outbreak in U.S. dairy cows, is crucial for inspiring timely action. This can be even more challenging for animal outbreaks, where information about the outbreak's scope is often more difficult to assess.
Accurate data collection, thorough analysis, and rapid response are key components in identifying this “tipping point” threshold and prompting urgent intervention. Reliable data allows experts to detect early warning signs, assess risks, and make informed decisions and take action. This action can then contain the outbreak, protect public health, and minimise economic losses.
Speaking during the webinar, Dr Angie Rassmusen, said “Right now, one of the biggest things that has come up with the H5N1 dairy cattle outbreak in the US is just how unprepared we were. We were not doing surveillance in the species; we were not prepared for a cross-species transmission event that allowed for sustained transmission in a species that wasn't previously recognized to be particularly susceptible to H5N1 and as a result that outbreak was allowed to spread widely geographically due to the interstate transport of those cows for about three to four months before it was detected.
We've been slow to respond as far as many of the basics go. In terms of testing in terms of diagnostics, in terms of serology tests and in terms of plans to carry those things out. We also have no clear trigger criteria for vaccinating people who are at higher risk, and we don't have a coherent plan for vaccinating animals. As a result, um we are still detecting new infected herds today.”
One focal point of the discussion was the role of vaccines in mitigating the risk of an H5N1 pandemic. Finland’s rapid vaccination response to past outbreaks was presented as a case study, showing how early and widespread vaccination can significantly reduce the spread of the virus.
Dr Hanna Nohynek, told the audience about Finland’s program to deploy H5N1 vaccines, “We had prepared to vaccinate 10,000 people. The vaccinations started at the very best time ahead of summer vacations. There was intensive campaigning to reach these people, so they knew the vaccine was available and free of charge. But I have to say that until last week, out of the 10,000 people we were hoping to reach, we have only vaccinated about 500. So there still remains a lot to be done.”
Dr Bob Kadlec, added “Let’s do what Finland has done. Expand testing in animals and humans extensively, and immunise the cows.” and “We need to conduct the necessary dose-sparing vaccine trials in humans and offer that to high-risk workers in the agricultural community.”
Dr Florian Krammer, also stated, “We need to stockpile vaccines, we need to seriously think about vaccinating cows and figure out if that works. We need to lower the barrier to testing. Right now everything goes through the CDC, I think every clinical laboratory in the US should have the ability to test for an H5N1 infection. And the last point is really about information. It’s not just about cows, we’ve found H5N1 in New York City birds, people get exposed to this virus and there are no information campaigns. People should know what H5N1 is and that they shouldn’t touch sick or dead birds.”
Our panellists emphasised the importance of preemptive measures, with the experts noting that the global health community is better equipped now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, challenges remain in ensuring rapid detection and response to new strains of the virus.
Dr Angie Rasmussen states clearly that “We need to expand testing, without sufficient testing it is impossible to understand the scale and scope of it. We need to first prioritise getting vaccines to people who are at high risk of occupational exposure as well as strongly considering vaccinating cows. We should also expand our surveillance efforts and not limit it to species we already know are susceptible, we need to try and find places where essentially the virus could hide, develop and spread, which is how the cattle outbreak got so out of control in the first place.”
The event also provided a comprehensive understanding of how H5N1 is evolving and the risk of reassortment with seasonal influenza. This type of reassortment event, where two influenza strains mix, could result in a hybrid virus that is more efficient at transmitting human-to-human and potentially more deadly.
Our modelling, presented during the webinar, showed a fivefold increase in the likelihood of an H5N1 reassortment event in the U.S. this winter. The U.S., in particular, is at a heightened risk, especially among farm workers who are exposed to both seasonal flu and avian strains. Read the full press release and analysis here.
Dr. Florian Krammer highlighted “Now, we're coming into the influenza season, and people working on these farms will go to work with infections of H1N1 or H3N2 seasonal influenza, and they might get exposed to H5N1, which could enable reassortment. That is a really dangerous situation.”
He concluded, “We should do everything we can to stop this outbreak in the cattle farms”.
Watch the full webinar below or access more details through our press release.
CSL Seqirus has provided a hands-off sponsorship to this Event and has had no input into the agenda, speakers or content.