France could see local dengue cases rise 50-fold by 2030 as temperatures rise

Locally acquired dengue cases in France could reach over 3,000 annually by 2030 from a recorded 65 in 2022, according to new analysis.

The temperature in France has risen significantly over the last ten years, with no indication that the general trend in rising temperatures is slowing. 

Airfinity’s modeling based on the relationship between temperature and dengue incidence, shows if temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, annual dengue cases could reach more than 3,250 by the end of the decade. 

Aedes albopictus, known as the tiger mosquito, is the main vector for dengue fever in Europe. Its spread has increased dramatically across France over the past 12 years, being detected in over 70 of the departments of France in 2022 in comparison to 6 in 2010.

There were 65 locally acquired dengue cases in France last year, compared with 48 in the previous 12 years combined. 

A hotter and wetter climate will aid the spread of disease in both rich and poor countries, with the El Nino ocean warming adding to concerns.

Airfinity’s global overview of dengue incidence shows nearly half the world’s population may now be at risk of dengue infection. 

The incidence of dengue has increased at least 30-fold over the last 50 years, with ~0.5 million reported to the WHO in 2000, rising to 5.2 million reported in 2019, with true estimates up to 96 million per year. According to the WHO, the disease is now considered endemic in more than 100 countries globally and is spreading geographically.

El Niño has previously led to an increase in Dengue burden. Paraguay and Brazil experienced a 586% and 177% rise, respectively, in cases due to excessive rainfall during the 2015-16 El Niño.

The arrival of El Niño this year is expected to result in highest dengue rates ever recorded in Peru. 

Airfinity forecasts, which consider temperature, precipitation, humidity, windspeed, and time of year, have predicted between approximately 290,000 - 390,000 cases of dengue in Peru by the end of the year compared to approximately 50,000 in 2021 and 73,000 in 2022. 

Dr Louise Blair, Airfinity’s Director of Analysis and Insights, says, “Dengue is a global problem. While many consider Dengue to be only a problem in tropical countries, we are seeing cases rise in countries further north as well as rates increase across those in which it is endemic. In the short term southeast Asia is at the greatest risk of further dengue outbreaks, but climate models show that increased mosquito transmission is expected in Europe.

“If temperatures continue to rise then we could see the disease becoming endemic in southern Europe. Innovation in vaccines, treatments and other countermeasures will define how dengue is handled. Airfinity’s market breaker tool indicated Takeda’s QDENGA vaccine and the Butantan Institue’s candidate TV003 could play a pivotal role in the global response.”

For more information about our burden of disease forecasting, get in touch via infectiousdiseases@airfinity.com.