Data for Pandemic Preparedness: New approaches for medical countermeasure (MCM) delivery

In September, Airfinity hosted a virtual webinar as part of  the United Nations General Assembly Science Summit. 

The session was a multidisciplinary, data-driven discussion of pandemic preparedness from a global health perspective. It highlighted the importance of disease surveillance and modelling to detect outbreaks that claim millions of lives, disrupt societies and devastate economies across the globe. 

The panel brought together industry leaders, including Craig Williams, Operating Partner at Flagship Pioneering and President of Apriori Bio, Nic Talbot-Watt, Associate Director at Gilead Sciences, Dylan George, Director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Sandeep Patel, former Director of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) DRiVe, and Airfinity’s VP of Biorisk, Michelle Holko.

Using Data to Improve Public Health Decisions: The Case of Mpox

Using the current mpox outbreak as a case study, the panel explored how retrospective analysis of outbreaks can inform better public health decisions for future pandemics.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the surge of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and other African countries a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in August 2023. This decision reflected the growing burden of mpox clade Ia and the emergence of clade Ib in eastern DRC and neighbouring countries.

According to Airfinity’s analysis, if 100,000 people had been vaccinated in January 2024, 11.7% of infections and 6.4% of deaths could have been prevented by early August, including a 3.4% reduction in child deaths. With 200,000 single doses, these numbers improve further, with an estimated 8.8% of infections and 5.6% of child deaths potentially averted. Overall, the mpox burden could have been 19% lower for the year, with over 2,600 cases averted.

Key insights from the panel

Craig Williams: “The more proactive we can be, the less likely we are to see widespread impact. Vaccines continue to be the most effective countermeasure we have to combat these emerging threats”

Dylan George PhD: “We need to sustain funding in surveillance not only so that we have a better understanding of what the threats and risks are, but also to enable medical countermeasure development, the vaccines, the therapeutics, the drugs, the various personal protective equipment that we need to counter these, to make sure we are right sizing those resources in the appropriate way. There is a lot of discussion about advancing different capabilities to enable much more rapid vaccine development or much more rapid therapeutics development. And I think those are spot on going forward. But we do need to have these data sources. We do need to have the sustained surveillance capabilities that will allow us to know when we click those in.”

Nic Talbot-Watt: “I would like a global agency that can see the burden of disease and deployment of resources equitably but, I think we are quite a long way away from that. We usually end up with a sort of land grab from governments and local authorities so to have one agency that had an overview and could deploy resources appropriately would be my wish.”

Sandeep Patel: “We need to rethink the system so outbreak data sharing is not penalised. Currently, if you report a variant or an outbreak, you are subject to an economic penalty to your country and region. We don’t yet have a solution but it’s something we absolutely need to recognise, because it is inhibiting the flow of data that is really critical for faster, better responses.”

The webinar illustrated the importance of leveraging data to inform future pandemic preparedness strategies. Airfinity’s analysis of the mpox outbreak demonstrates how timely vaccination could have significantly reduced the burden of disease. Looking ahead, it is clear that sustained investment in disease surveillance, equitable resource distribution, and open data sharing will be vital in mitigating the impact of future pandemics.

Watch the full webinar and hear more from our expert panel below.